Calling nine elections right, prof says ‘Ditch polls’

An American University who has developed a system he has used to successfully predict the outcome of nine presidential election faults the U.S. media for an over-reliance on traditional polling.

Rather than conducting surveys of likely voters, historian Allan Jay Lichtman loads his crystal ball with a list of statements about current conditions, and if six or more are negative, the win goes against the incumbent party.

He developed his system out of his profession and a study of conditions during presidential elections from 1860 on.

And what the pollsters got wrong, Lichtman got right, predicting Trump’s election when the news media was using polls to report that Hillary Clinton had it in the bag.

From Britain’s i news:

Reflecting on the many polls that in the lead up to the election, incorrectly predicted Hillary Clinton would cinch victory, he says polls and pundits are “worthless” and shouldn’t be part of the media debate.

Mr Lichtman is a professor of history at the American University in Washington DC and a political analyst. He predicts election results using his unique ‘keys’ system.

The system assesses the strengths and performance of the party in the White House to predict whether the incumbent party will win again or whether the challenging party will take over. Having studied every American election since 1860, Mr Lichtman says his predictions are correct because they are based on history.


Mr Trump’s win has overshadowed the historian’s triumph of his ninth successful prediction in a year when an “out-of-the-box candidate [with] no record of public service,” had made the election so unpredictable.

“I think Donald Trump is dangerous for the nation. I think he stoked divisions between the races, the religions in America and that’s not a good thing.”

We leave the last word to the editorial cartoonist of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution:

Mike Luckovich: Smooth sailing



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