Chuck Wald, Berkeley, Africom, Iran & agrofuels

UPDATE: At the end.

Back in the late 19th Century, when Britain was the world’s reigning imperial power, the war wizards of London waged a long strategic struggle with Russia for the control of Central Asia.

The British called it the Great Game [a name popularized by Rudyard Kipling, that eloquent chronicler of imperialism] and the Russians dubbed it the Tournament of Shadows.

Fast forward to the 1908′s, when the Reagan administration 1aunched its own version of the conflict by its covert backing of a war of terror waged against the Soviet-backed Afghan government, then jump again to 2002, when the Bush administration launched its own war in Afghanistan, this time as part of a “war on terror” that continues today.

Which brings us to Charles F. Wald, the now-retired Air Force general who waged the air war against the Taliban government and today draws in a nice fat salary as the very embodiment of what Dwight David Eisenhower memorably named “the military industrial complex.”

Charles F. “Chuck” Wald, the military/industrial complex personified

Our attention was first drawn to Wald when we attended the International Low Carbon Symposium at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory [LBNL] on 18 May 2007 [which is where we took our picture of Wald].

Sitting at the head table were three men. We immediately recognized two of the trio, Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger, LBNL Director and Nobel Laureate Steve Chu [now Secretary of Energy]. But we’d never encountered the third, whose simple physical presence struck us as, well, riveting.

It was Wald, and looking very much in command, as should the man who had retired the previous July at four-star rank.

He had one central message to convey to the LBNL gathering, as we reported at the time for the Berkeley Daily Planet:

With “our national security dramatically influenced by the demand for oil,” Wald said, the best solution is development of alternative fuels.

And the best alternatives, he’s argued, would be plant-derived “biofuels,” or, as we prefer to call them, agrofuels, since virtually all the so-called “biomass” would be derived from vast industrial-scale corporate plantations.

And where would those agrofuel crops be grown? A hint from a Tweet dispatched on 25 May, reported by Biofuels Digest:

IAmBiotech: General Charles F. Wald (Ret.) “Where’s the best place in the world to grow #biomass for #biofuels? Equatorial Africa.”

General Wald and the genesis of AFRICOM

During his tenure as deputy commander of the U.S. European Command [EUCOM], WikiLeaks cables [to be featured in another post tomorrow] reveals that Wald’s portfolio included responsibility for military energy security.

As we noted here two years ago:

Wald was instrumental in formulating the military’s strategy for control of Eurasian oil supplies in time of war, and was deeply involved in the creation of Africom, the Pentagon’s newest command, which took shape in the year after his retirement, and is focused on securing that continent’s energy resources.

At the time Wald was assigned to EUCOM the command oversaw the American military’s operations in 91 nations, including Africa, and as part of his job, Wald toured Africa, reviewing military ties and proposing alliances.

Charles Cobb Jr. of AllAfrica.com reported on Wald’s EUCOM activites in Africa back on 8 March 2004:

General Wald, who briefed a small group of Africa-focused journalists Monday, has just returned from a seven-day, 11-nation tour of Africa that included stops in Luanda, Lagos, Pretoria, Cape Town, Accra, Tunis, Niamey and Algiers.

>snip<

The small and often poorly equipped and trained armies throughout Africa need U.S. assistance, Wald said. Currently, U.S. special operations forces are training armies in Mali, Niger, Mauritania and Chad as part of a State Department-funded program called The Pan Sahel Initiative (PSI). According to USEUCOM, the program, which trains selected units “on mobility, communications, land navigation, and small unit tactics,” is “designed to enhance border capabilities throughout the region against arms smuggling, drug trafficking, and the movement of trans-national terrorists.” Expanding the initiative to include Morocco, Tunisia and Algeria is under consideration.

This is a first step for USEUCOM in a regional approach to combating terrorism in which African nations take the lead. “I can see the South Africans and the Angolans cooperating in the future on regional security”, said Wald. USEUCOM wants to reach agreement with governments across Africa on the use of airports for fuel stops – “Forward Operating Stations…that we can stop in, refuel in…I look at any place in Africa that has a runway or port that wants to be friends with the United States or we have a relationship with as a potential forward-operating location that we could temporarily use.”

Read the rest.

And here’s how he explained his mission that same month to Associated Press reporter Todd Pitman in March, 2004:

Squeezed out of sanctuaries elsewhere in the world, al-Qaida may be looking to the deserts and jungles of Africa as a haven where terrorists could train recruits and plan new attacks, the deputy head of U.S. forces in Europe said Friday.

Key among U.S. military proposals to fight back is deploying American units of about 200 soldiers to train armies throughout the continent, patrol alongside them, or hunt terrorists on short notice if necessary.

“Some people compare it to draining a swamp,” Air Force Gen. Charles Wald told The Associated Press, eyeing a map of Africa in his office in Stuttgart. “We need to drain the swamp.”

Read the rest.

One result of Wald’s groundwork was the separation of Africa from the EUCOM umbrella through the creation a new Pentagon command focusing solely on Africa, AFRICOM. — which was formally inaugurated by President George W. Bush on 6 February 2007.

In addition to so-called “Forward Operating Stations” staffed by U.S. troops in Djibouti and on Ascension Island, AFRICOM has the use of so-called “lily pads” or “cooperative Security Locations” described in a 43-page report by Congressional Research African Affairs analyst Lauren earlier this year as “‘bare-bones’ facilities maintained by local troops in Algeria, Botswana, Gabon, Ghana, Kenya, Mali, Namibia, Sao Tome and Principe, Sierra Leone, Tunisia, Uganda, and Zambia. The full report is located here [PDF].

In that context, his Tweet assumes a more troubling nuance.

A retied general who laid the groundwork for American military hegemony

Africa, agrofuels, land grabs, and murders

From La Via Campesina, a first-hand account of the impacts of the massive corporate land grab now underway in Africa.

The writer is Ndiakhate Falla a farmer who lives in the village of Nyéléni in Mali, and the story he tells is one repeated throughout those regions of Africa, Latin America, and Asia targeted by corporations for farming and mining ventures.

Even before the $500 million UC Berkeley/BP deal to develop agrofuels and the genetically modified bacteria to produce them, Berkeley had sent a team of researchers to Africa in search of likely crops.

No mention was made by the university or the oil giant of the likely impacts on the lands where BP would plant its corporate flag, nor of the human costs. Those concerns were left to the minority of Berkeley faculty who questioned the wisdom of linking a public university with one of the most rapacious corporations on earth.

Thanks to Falla’s story, told at the website of the global peasant-and-smallholder alliance La Via Campesina, we have the other side of the story, and its grim.

Note that people are being murdered because of corporate greed for land to grow fuel crops and the refineries to process them, and remember that every time you hear a technocrat sing the praises of plant-derived fuels.

And remember too that the same now-retired Air Force general who drafted the Pentagon’s agrofuel agenda also created Africom, the new Pentagon command formed specifically exercise hegemony over the continent on which Falla lives. And that same general appeared here in Berkeley alongside the former Cal scientist who now serves Barack Obama as Secretary of Energy.

From the website of La Via Campesina:

Interview with Ndiakhate Fall, from the region of Thies, Ville de Mecklie, member of the CMCR (Conseil National de Concertation et de Cooperation des Ruraux) that is the platform of peasants’ organisations in Senegal, member of Via Campesina.

I am a farmer. I grow mainly peanuts, and other vegetables for consumption, as well keeping sheep and cows. My country Senegal has already promised to give away 500.000 hectares of land for growing agrofuels or food for export. Senegal has many examples of land-grabbing, and most of them are linked to a number of specific phenomena.

First of all the extension of cities. In all big cities nowadays there are real estate companies that want land to build houses or to sell it to private investors. Secondly, there are land grabs by mining industries; many companies come and settle in Senegal – for example, an Austrian company, that mines zircon, has grabbed a lot of land and robbed many farmers.

Another example is from the valley of Fanaye, where an Italian company has received 150.000 hectares of land from the government. Local communities have opposed and resisted these landgrabs but we have unfortunately been met with violence, which has resulted in the death of a number of farmers few months ago. All these are different systems of land-grabbing, but this is not an exhaustive list, and there are many others strategies of land-grabbing nowadays in Senegal.

At present, thanks to the information campaigns developed by peasants organizations and other civil society organisations many farmers are refusing to be pushed off their land. Unfortunately other farmers still accept being expelled from their territories as they believe the promises of the foreign companies: that they will create jobs for their children; that they will produce food for their own food security, etc. A few years ago a local community agreed to give away their lands to the Austrian company in exchange for compensation. But today they have started to organise protests to show that the promises haven’t been kept, as for example the promise to create jobs – in fact only ten young people from the area have been employed, while all the rest of the

Econowrap: Poor at home, worried abroad

As the pace of the world economic crisis heats up, we bring you developments starting close to home, then take a trip to China before heading to Europe for the latest round of the Continental Debacle, then come back home through Asia.

Child poverty rates skyrocket in Oakland

The folks of Occupy Oakland are clearly on the right track. As wealth works its way up the class ladder, those at the bottom are being left ever-further behind.

From Aaron Glantz of the Bay Citizen:

Nearly three of every ten children in Oakland is living in poverty, a more than 50 percent increase from just three years ago, according to data the U.S. Census Bureau released Tuesday.

In the Bay Area, the city has the highest percentage of children living in poverty.

The Census found Oakland’s school-aged children were particularly hard-hit by the recession, a development that educators say could have long-term impacts on their academic success.

>snip<

The rise in the percentage of children in poverty comes as more middle class families flee Oakland for better schools and safer neighborhoods on the other side of the Caldecott Tunnel.

The number of school-aged children living in Oakland declined significantly over the past decade, the census shows — from approximately 80,000 a decade ago to fewer than 60,000 in 2010, with 46,000 attending Oakland’s public schools.

Read the rest.

Crisis sends children to the free school lunch line

The rising child poverty in Oakland is part of a larger trend, with growing numbers of America’s young being forced to resort to public assistance at a time when governments are drastically scaling back on social support.

From Sam Dillon of the New York Times:

Millions of American schoolchildren are receiving free or low-cost meals for the first time as their parents, many once solidly middle class, have lost jobs or homes during the economic crisis, qualifying their families for the decades-old safety-net program.

The number of students receiving subsidized lunches rose to 21 million last school year from 18 million in 2006-7, a 17 percent increase, according to an analysis by The New York Times of data from the Department of Agriculture, which administers the meals program. Eleven states, including Florida, Nevada, New Jersey and Tennessee, had four-year increases of 25 percent or more, huge shifts in a vast program long characterized by incremental growth.

The Agriculture Department has not yet released data for September and October.

“These are very large increases and a direct reflection of the hardships American families are facing,” said Benjamin Senauer, a University of Minnesota economist who studies the meals program, adding that the surge had happened so quickly “that people like myself who do research are struggling to keep up with it.”

Read the rest.

More tax hikes proposed for California

Gov Jerry Brown once compared his political style to paddling a canoe: First you wow on the left, then on the right.

And his ;latest proposal for new tax increases is a classic example, including both an income tax for the rich as well as a boost in that most regressive of levies, the sales tax.

From Michael J. Mishak and Nicholas Riccardi of the Los Angeles Times:

In the latest proposed fix for California’s fiscal crisis, Gov. Jerry Brown is expected to announce a multibillion-dollar tax initiative in the coming days, asking voters to raise levies on upper-income earners and increase the state’s sales tax by half a cent.

The levies would expire at the end of 2016, said sources with direct knowledge of the plan. The governor’s office has been fine-tuning the tax measure for weeks with its labor allies. It hopes to file language with the attorney general’s office as early as Friday so it can start gathering the signatures needed to place the measure on the November 2012 ballot.

>snip<

After the state enacted an austere state budget this year, the nonpartisan Legislative Analyst’s Office said California is likely to be $3.7 billion short of balancing its books in the current fiscal year. That probably will trigger a new round of reductions that could mean a shorter school year in some districts and millions of dollars slashed from public universities, child-care programs and services for the disabled. Even then, California could face a $13-billion shortfall in the next fiscal year, the analyst said.

Brown’s plan, developed in a series of closed-door meetings between his senior staff,  labor leaders and representatives of Democratic legislative leaders, would add an extra 1% tax on individual income above $250,000 a year. Individuals making between $300,000 and $500,000 would be taxed an additional 1.5% for that income. And those making more than $500,000 would see an additional 2% hike.

Those hikes, coupled with the sales tax increase, could raise about $7 billion.

Read the rest.

And while we’re on the topic of wealth

Consider these sobering facts, stated with precision by Floyd Norris of the New York Times:

In the eight decades before the recent recession, there was never a period when as much as 9 percent of American gross domestic product went to companies in the form of after-tax profits. Now the figure is over 10 percent.

During the same period, there never was a quarter when wage and salary income amounted to less than 45 percent of the economy. Now the figure is below 44 percent.

For companies, these are boom times. For workers, the opposite is true.

The government’s first estimate of corporate profits in the third

A vitally important harsh dose of reality: A crash course in our ‘growth’ delusion

The first 38 minutes of this video presents the best synopsis we’ve yet seen of the constellation of crises now confronting us as a species.

In a world where money is created as debt: For every unit of currency created by a central bank, the recipient private banks issue multiple units of currency as loans, that is, as indebtedness — and at interest. The system can only survive if it grows exponentially. That, in turn, requires an exponential growth in consumption of natural resources [oil, minerals, animals, crops, etc., plus the liquid fuels to transport the finished products. That, in turn, creates exponential impacts on the environment.

Chris Martenson’s talk earlier this month to the GoldMoney.com’s Gold & Silver Meeting in Madrid.

Martenson, who holds a pathology doctorate from Duke and went on to get an MBA in finance from Cornell, became a vice president first of Pfizer an then at Science Applications International Corporation’s Life Sciences Division, which he left six years ago, a decision we presume was based on an epiphany.

In the years since, he has developed an video educational program and a book, both called The Crash Course. He’s also a fellow at the Post Carbon Institute.

We also note with approval this line from the biography on his website:

I grow a garden every year; preserve food, know how to brew beer & wine, and raise chickens. I’ve carefully examined each support system (food, energy, security, etc), and for each of them I’ve figured out either a means of being more self-sufficient or a way to do without. But, most importantly, I now know that the most important descriptor of wealth is not my dollar holdings, but the depth and richness of my community.

Now our notes from listening to his talk:

Modern economics is based on exponential growth, based on “loaning all your money into existence,” a system in which there is always more debt than money in circulation. Total credit market debt in the United States has doubled five times since 1970. The credit market growth curve perfectly matched that of an exponential system until 2008, when a huge departure began.

The system had hit a limit to its growth with the Great Crash of 2008, and we have set ourselves up for devastating losses, a point he makes with all the requisite graphics. Debt loads are now so immense, he argues, that any return to the previous status quo is simply impossible.

The economy is something that must grow to maintain itself, but in 2009, the global economy shrunk by two percent, and worse lies ahead. But all this is hard to grasp. Because, as he notes, humans simply aren’t geared to intuitively grasp exponential growth and its implications, a point he deftly illustrates with a metaphor that includes water drops, a football stadium, and handcuffs, rather than the grains of wheat on chessboard squares of classical lore.

Oil production has followed a similar exponential pattern, and if we don’t have oil, the global economy, now premised on a system of just-in-time delivery becomes impossible.

Again: We are living at a moment when exponential curves in all sectors of the economy, energy, and environment are reaching their apogees.

Problems have solutions; predicaments have outcomes, which can only be managed , not solved. We are facing an energy predicament and treating it as problem. Global oil discoveries peaked in 1964, and have been dwindling ever since. Oil Shock I

Obama launches his own Great White Fleet

We’re late on this, but we’ve been swept up by events closer to home, namely the stunning brutality of police repression of demonstrations at the University of California and the emerging catastrophe that is the European economy.

But it’s an issue we don’t want to skip, because it has very much to do with the global economic chaos and ensuing violence as state’s become instruments of bankers and corporations, selling of the commons [call it the Great Enclosure of the 21st Century].

As the industrial might of the West declines, China’s arises, along with India. But India’s been a reliable ally, in part because of a shared concern of the elite with economic rise of China and increasing militancy of the Islamic world.

Which brings us to Barack Obama and Teddy Roosevelt’s Great White Fleet.

TR, as our grandma used to call him, was, like Obama, a man who talked a good “progressive” game. And unlike Obama, Theodore Roosevelt never tried to disguise his ambitious imperialism. And TR delivered a genuinely progressive legislative program, very much unlike Barry O. [“The Great Trustbuster,” our grandmother called him.]

Roosevelt exulted in his imperial dreams, and he issued a direct challenge to the rest of the world by sending sixteen battleships, along with all their destroyer escorts, on a round-the-world tour de force from 16 December 1907 to 22 February 1909. And he called it The Great White Fleet.

The Great White Fleet steams forth.

America had arrived, and as if to snub the previous masters of what our old friend Buckminister Fuller called the “One World Ocean,” TR didn’t even bother to order a stop in an English port.

In the Pacific, the fleet’s notable stops were in Japan, then the dominant Asian military power, having sunk much of the Russian navy just four years earlier, Australia, and New Zealand, with only half the fleet dropping anchor in a Chinese port. China, in those days, was a broken and dying empire, a vassal of the West.

Africa, except for a cruise through the Suez Canal, didn’t even merit a visit, since the continent was under the control of European powers, in contrast to today, where a U.S. military imperium holds sway under the Defense Department’s newest command structure, Africom.

But the clearest signal sent by Roosevelt’s gunboat diplomacy was America’s claim to mastery of the Pacific, a message first sent to Asia in 1853 when Commodore Matthew Calbraith Perry’s “Black Ships” dropped anchor in Uraga Harbor on the Japanese coast and force the Tokugawa Shogunate to open their country to American trade.

The Black Ships as seen from Japan, via NASA

Obama’s new Pacific Imperium

While the United States maintains dominance over the world’s oceans, Barack Obama has decided that Asia — that is, China — needs yet another reminder of the power of the American imperium.

Gunboats, it seems, are no longer enough.

Now it’s more troops.

From Tony Cross of Radio France Internationale:

US President Barack Obama returned to Washington [20 November] after an Asia-Pacific tour in which he announced the start of “America’s Pacific century”. The trip signals US determination to face up to China, the only potential challenger to its domination of the world stage.

“As the fastest-growing region in the world, no market is more important to our economic future than the Asia Pacific – a region where our exports already support five million American jobs,” Obama said.

The Asia-Pacific region produces 60 per cent of the world’s GDP and represents half of world trade.

That means there’s a lot of trade to be done, but at the back of the American collective mind is the threat to US hegemony from the rising giant, China.

So Obama’s Trans-Pacific Partnership, a trade pact whose “broad outlines” were announced on 12 November, would not include China and that’s no coincidence.

“It’s a posse to get China,” according to Sydney Morning Herald editor Peter Hartcher.

Read the rest.

China was quick to respond

Before Obama’s visit Down Under, China was well aware of Washington’s plans for a new “China containment” strategy in the Pacific, and responded with a statement 7 November through the official Xinhua news agency [via Watching America], which included this:

Presently, China does not have the international political capability to restrain the U.S. In reality, it is currently the cooperation between China, Russia and a number of other countries that are fearful of American hegemony jointly working to restrict the U.S. With the expansion of economic ties, global governance needs to be further strengthened, but this does not mean that any single nation should be allowed to monopolize world power. In the future, even if global governance requires a relatively high concentration of power, it should be in the form of an executive power, not in the form of a decision-making power that affects the fate of nation-states. The U.S. can be a pillar within the world system, but it cannot be a manipulator of world

Eurozone crisis deepens, despite all the bluster

Despite all the hype, hurrahs, hosannahs, hallelujahs, and hails from the mainstream media over the so-called “rescue” of the euro last week, it’s becoming ever clearer that the reality is far grimmer than the blatherskite, ballyhoos, balderdash, and just plain bullshit so freely doled out.

Having disposed of the briefly independent-minded Greek Prime Minister, the powers that be are setting their sites on his otherwise loathsome Italian counterpart, Silvio “Bunga Bunga” Berlusconi.

But even the toppling of obstructionist European politicians won’t be enough, as you’ll discover after the jump.

Our first items hails from the BBC:

The Italian government’s borrowing cost has risen as fears grow over political uncertainty in Rome.

The yield on Italian 10-year bonds rose from 6.37% to a euro-era high of 6.64%, before retreating to 6.5%.

It is feared that Italy, the eurozone’s third biggest economy, could become the next victim of the debt crisis. PM Silvio Berlusconi faces a crunch vote on public finance on Tuesday.

Mr Berlusconi denied on Facebook reports that he was about to resign.

Stock markets across Europe bounced up on the chance of the Italian premier’s departure but returned to negative territory at Monday’s close.

In London, the FTSE 100 ended down 0.3%, France’s Cac 40 fell 0.6%, and in Frankfurt the Dax index closed down 0.6%. In early afternoon trading in New York, the Dow Jones industrial average was down 0.76%.

Read the rest.

And from The Guardian, more evidence that Berlusconi’s refusal to resign isn’t exactly boosting investor confidence:

The news that Silvio Berlusconi is planning to cling onto power and hold a confidence vote at an unspecified point in the future has hit Italian government debt again.

The yields on Italy’s 10-year bonds has been climbing for the last hour, hitting a new euro-era record high of 6.69%.

In the City, the FTSE 100 closed at 5510, down 16 points or -0.3%. Spain’s IBEX fell 1.5%, but the Italian MIB managed a 1.3% rally.

Joshua Raymond, chief market strategist at City Index, said the bond markets continued to “send ripples into equity markets today”:

With European leaders no closer to determining how their Euro zone bailout fund is to increase in size, there remains significant concerns that Europe may not have the firepower in place should [Italian] yields continue their upward momentum and push beyond the 7% level.

And from Don Lee of the Los Angeles Times, a telling quote from a former member of the Berlusconi government:

Mario Baldassarri, an MIT-trained economist and former vice minister of economy and finance in Berlusconi’s administration, eyed a large monitor in his office as it flashed news of Berlusconi’s denial. Back in August, Baldassarri said, he thought it would be just weeks before Berlusconi stepped down. But since 10 days ago, he said, “I started to say days.”

And more from Deutsche Welle’s Spencer Kimball:

Rome has come under pressure from its European partners, particularly France and Germany, to rapidly implement reform measures in order to fend off a debt contagion that could bring down the 17-member currency union.

Divisions within Berlusconi’s own cabinet, however, prevented the Italian premier from presenting a concrete reform package to his European partners in the run up to the G20 summit in Cannes, France last week. At the summit, Berlusconi agreed to allow the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and European Commission to monitor Italy’s progress toward economic reform.

Former Berlusconi ally Gianfranco Fini – speaker of the Italian parliament’s lower house – said that even if the prime minister could scrape together a majority, his government still had lost its credibility.

“The government must understand that it is not credible even if it wins in parliament by a vote, because with a majority of one vote you can survive but you cannot govern,” Fini said.

Read the rest.

Via Spiegel, graphic evidence that Berlusconi is loosing key support from the business community:

Their caption:

Enrico Frare, 36, runs a winter sportswear company. Last week he posed naked for an ad in Italy’s largest newspaper, Corriere della Sera. “Every day in Italy a businessman risks losing his underpants,” read the caption — a protest against Italian leadership during the euro crisis.

Corriere della Sera’s M. Antonietta Calabrò has more on Berlusconi’s refusal to abdicate:

“After me, only elections. No interim or broad-based governments with a puppet premier. I’ve got solid numbers and I’m not stepping down for Bersani, Di Pietro and Vendola. The opposition should vote for the crisis-containment measures presented in Brussels, and appreciated by everyone in the EU”.

Far from knuckling under, Silvio Berlusconi is in fighting mood (“Let’s cut the whining”). On the eve of this morning’s stock exchange test when all eyes will be on Piazza Affari, a confident premier claimed that he can still command a parliamentary majority to pass the measures demanded by international bodies, despite announcements of defections in the government coalition: “In the past few hours, I have verified that the numbers in Parliament are secure”. In a telephone link to an Azione Popolare convention organised by Silvano Moffa, Mr Berlusconi said “no one in this Parliament is capable of putting together a credible alternative majority”. The prime minister

Chart of the day: And it doesn’t include Libya

From the BBC, some of what the Pentagon spends on killing. Click on the image to embiggen:

La Via Campesina: Keep the food chain free

La Via Campesina is the global organization representing peasants and smallholders in the battle against the forces of banksters and corporateers.

The goal of corporations and their financiers being endless growth and ceaseless expansion, their focus has turned toward capturing the earth’s land [see the previous post on the violence in Senegal sparked by a land grab] and all that people grow on it.

And one key part of that goal is turning seeds into corporate property, the target of the latest campaign by La Via Campesina, one we heartily endorse:

Between noon and 2 p.m. on October 20, more than one hundred sustainable family farmers, members of various associations and committed citizens met across from the International Union for the Protection of New Varieties of Plants (UPOV), to protest on the occasion of the fiftieth birthday of the institution. Their watchword was “For the immediate recognition of the right of farmers to resow and freely exchange their seeds, and to protect them from biopiracy and contamination from patented genes. No to the stranglehold of seed multinationals, the New Plant Variety Certificate of 1991 and any form of patent on plants, parts of plants, their genes, or production methods.”

A tree was planted in front of the institution to symbolize the fact that farmers now have observer status there. They showed their determination through the symbolic performance of the “hoe kata”. Then packets of “illegal” seeds were distributed and their contents were sowed in the vicinity to illustrate the nature of the farmers’ struggle. Those who accept such seeds are currently considered receivers of stolen goods. Pierre Vanek and Philippe Sauvin (of the solidaritéS party) and Anne Mahrer (of the Vert party), candidates for the Swiss federal elections, are among those who accepted the packets.

“With regard to seeds, the situation has long been intolerable for sustainable family farmers, and may yet get worse. In fact the issue raised here affects everyone, as the question of access and of the free reproduction and exchange of seeds by farmers is the only way to prevent multinationals from appropriating and privatizing the entire food chain, and therefore life itself, through the bias of seeds and UPOV,” says Pierre-André Tombez, of the agricultural union Suisse Uniterre.

The right of farmers to resow and exchange their farm seeds is essential to the adaptation of crops to climate change, and to the local adaptation which alone enables a reduction in the use of chemical fertilizers and pesticides. It guarantees the safety of the seed stock and therefore food security.

“Men and women farmers have always kept part of their harvest to resow and exchange among themselves. Whether UPOV wants it or not, they will carry on doing so. What is at stake is the future of agriculture, of sustainable family farming and of coming generations. The right to save, sow and exchange seeds is the foundation for Food Sovereignty,” adds Josie Riffaud, of ECVC’s coordinating committee.

Econowrap: Euro deal in danger, Greek bombshell

The much heralded deal to save Europe’s economy looks less like a solution and more like a stopgap with each passing day.

But the real bombshell comes in the form of an announcement from the Greek government:

The whole Euro bailout was triggered by Greece’s economic disaster and it’s contingent on Greece buying the deal.

Well, now it seems that Greek acceptance is fair from a done deal, following this blockbuster announcement, via Kathimerini English Edition:

Prime Minister George Papandreou has stated his intention to hold a referendum on last week’s agreement in Brussels for Greece’s bondholders to accept a 50 percent haircut and the country to receive some 130 billion euros in loans from its eurozone partners.

Speaking to PASOK MPs, Papandreou also said that he would ask for a vote of confidence in Parliament. This is likely to to take place next week. The referendum could happen later this year.

Papandreou said he had faith in Greeks making the right decision. “Let us allow the people to have the last word, let them decide on the country’s fate,” he said. He said handing the vote over to Greeks was «an act of patriotism.”

The premier insisted that calling snap polls – ahead of elections scheduled for 2013 – would be “simply dodging the issue.”

The vote of confidence – likely to be held next week – would come just over four months after a similar vote that Papandreou sought, and won, to bolster his government ahead of a Parliamentary vote on austerity measures.

The premier’s bombshell came a day after an opinion poll, carried out by To Vima, found that 60 percent of Greeks regard last Thursday’s EU debt deal as “negative” or “probably negative.”

And some context: It’s all about Greece

From The Economic Collapse:

Once the euphoria of the initial announcement faded and as people have begun to closely examine the details of the European debt deal, they have started to realize that this “debt deal” is really just a “managed” Greek debt default.  Let’s be honest – this deal is not going to solve anything.  All it does is buy Greece a few months.  Meanwhile, it is going to make the financial collapse of other nations in Europe even more likely.  Anyone that believes that the financial situation in Europe is better now than it was last week simply does not understand what is going on.  Bond yields are going to go through the roof and investors are going to start to panic.  The European Central Bank is going to have an extremely difficult time trying to keep a lid on this thing.  Instead of being a solution, the European debt deal has brought us several steps closer to a complete financial meltdown in Europe.

Read the rest.

And again, it’s all Greek to us

From Tim Duy’s Fed Watch:

Not only are the details of the grand European plan still in flux, but so are the broad brushstrokes!  Clearly, the Greeks have just brought back into play all the uncertainty last week’s summit was meant to dispell.  It is not unreasonable to think the Greek electorate is more willing to technically default and start from scratch than their leaders. Indeed, shouldn’t this be our baseline scenario?

Bottom Line:  Last’s week European Summit accomplished far less than even the reduced expectations going into last week.  The cracks began appearing before the ink was dry.  More worrisome is that the Greek leadership didn’t even believe they were on board in the first place.  Simply put, the world economy is no less fragile than it was a week ago.  And in that fragility still lies the recession risk for a still struggling US economy.

Read the rest.

And even should Greece approve, recession coming

Indeed, it seems that Europe is headed into yet another round of recession, and we use that word advisedly, since for much of Europe there hasn’t been any “recovery” at all.

Jack Ewing reports for the New York Times:

The European economy broadcast mixed signals Monday, as inflation remained above the level considered acceptable by the European Central Bank, but unemployment rose and reinforced expectations of a looming recession.

The Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development forecast Monday that euro zone economies will see a “marked slowdown” next year, and called on the European Union to clarify its anti-crisis measures, The Associated Press reported.

In an update of economic forecasts timed to coincide with this week’s meeting of the Group of 20 major economies, the Paris-based O.E.C.D. said “patches of mild negative growth” were likely in the euro zone in 2012.

It predicted economic growth in the euro zone would stall at 0.3 percent next year, after just 1.6 percent growth this year. That is down from the O.E.C.D.’s forecast in May of 2 percent growth in the euro zone in 2012.

“Detailed information is needed” on how the European Union will implement the package of measures announced last week aimed at resolving the European debt crisis, the O.E.C.D. said.

Inflation in the 17 countries that belong to the euro area was steady in October at 3 percent, according to figures from Eurostat, the European Union statistical agency. That was contrary to analyst predictions of a slight drop because of slowing economic growth. However, unemployment edged higher to 10.2 percent in September from 10.1 percent in August, Eurostat said.

The data, along with a muted official forecast for Spanish growth, offer no easy choices for Mario Draghi when he presides over his first monetary policy meeting as president of the European Central Bank on Thursday.

Read the rest.

U.N. agency warns of global unrest

From Global Economic Crisis:

The International Labor Organization is the latest global body to warn about the ongoing global economic crisis. According to the most recent report from the ILO, the global economy is about to tip into what it calls a “a new and deeper jobs recession.” Given that advanced economies already are experiencing levels of unemployment and underemployment rivaling the Great Depression

The Euro bailout: A case of China in a bull shop?

Bull, as in, well, bull — as in all that hot air being bandied about about the “salvation” of the Europen monetary union.

It’s now becoming clear that the fate of the European economy doesn’t rest entirely in Europe’s hands, something that seems to have come as a surprise to most mainstream, who are now finally catching on to the key role China will play in whatever happens next on the badly fractured European continent.

In this post, we’ll look at some of the belated recognitions.

Hurriyet, the daily published in Istanbul, published one of the first recognitions:

The head of Europe’s 440-billion-euro bailout fund played down hopes of a quick deal with China to throw its support behind efforts to resolve the bloc’s debt crisis but said he expects Beijing to continue to buy bonds issued by the fund.

Klaus Regling, chief executive of the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), was in Beijing for talks with Chinese officials a day after eurozone leaders struck a last-minute accord on the two-year-old debt crisis.

European leaders are under pressure to finalize the details of their plan to slash Greece’s debt burden and strengthen their rescue fund. After their summit in Brussels, governments announced an agreement under which private banks and insurers would accept 50 percent losses on their Greek debt holdings in the latest bid to cut Athens’ debt load to sustainable levels.

Regling said the bailout deal with Greece was an exceptional case that he did not believe would have to be repeated for other nations.

Many in financial markets are concerned that the fund is not big enough to cope if Italy and Spain are drawn deeper into the crisis. Italy’s borrowing costs hit new euro-era highs at a bond auction on Friday. In the auction, interest rates on government bonds maturing in 2022 rose to 6.06 percent compared to 5.86 percent at the last similar auction on Sept. 29. The yield on bonds set to mature 2014 rose from 4.68 percent to 4.93 percent.

“We all know China has a particular need to invest surpluses,” Regling told journalists on Friday, referring to the country’s $3.2 trillion of foreign exchange reserves.

Read the rest.

And about the same time came this from The Independent’s Clifford Coonan:

[Chinese President Hu Jintao] made no explicit commitment of Chinese help. And speculation was rife yesterday that it would not provide Europe with the necessary funds without strong incentives.

Some analysts suggested that China could channel money through the International Monetary Fund because it would want to see stringent conditions over the extent of eurozone fiscal deficits applied to its investment. They also pointed to Beijing’s irritation at previous European criticism of its human rights record and suggested that a less interventionist approach from the EU could be a quid pro quo of any deal.

A Chinese official implied earlier this week that the Chinese investment would not come easily.

“The chief concern of the Chinese government is how to explain this decision to our own people,” Li Daokui, a monetary policy adviser to China’s central bank, told the Financial Times. “The last thing China wants is to throw away the country’s wealth.”

While China’s current holdings of euro bonds are not known, they are said to be focused on Germany and France, and much smaller than its holdings of US Treasury bonds. Some analysts reckon probably around one-quarter of its holdings are in euro assets.

Read the rest.

And from Spiegel:

While nothing concrete resulted from the chat, there are indications on Friday that any Chinese involvement could come at a price. According to a front-page story in the Financial Times, China would not only require water-tight guarantees on its investment, but Europe might have to pay a political price as well.

As a condition for its involvement, Beijing could ask European leaders to cease criticizing China’s policy of keeping its currency, the renminbi, artificially undervalued, Li Daokui, a member of China’s central bank monetary policy committee, told the paper. It is an issue that has repeatedly strained China’s relations with Europe, but especially with the United States. Were Europe to agree to such a demand, it could drive a wedge between Washington and Brussels.

“It is in China’s long-term and intrinsic interest to help Europe because they are our biggest trading partner,” Li told the Financial Times. “But … the last thing China wants to do is throw away the country’s wealth and be seen as just a source of dumb money.”

Read the rest.

So there you have. While no man is an island, no economy is either, and China’s rise has placed an Asian economy in a critical position in determining the efforts of Europe to save its beleaguered fiscal condition.

Just what role China chooses to play remains to be seen, but we can be certain we’ll be seeing a very different game than that imagined just a few years ago.

And given the questionable shape of China’s economy, what with that massive real estate estate bubble and its utter dependence on consumers in the West, it’s shaping up to be a truly bumpy ride.

Headline of the day: The sleeping giant awakens

From Spiegel:

China May Impose Conditions for Helping Euro Zone

Israel endorses Palestinian U.N. membership

No, not really. But the effects of the Israeli government’s actions Tuesday are certain to bring new impetus for the Palestinian bid for membership in the United Nations, despite the best efforts of Benjamin Netanyahu’s government and his faithful servants in Washington.

To any rational observer, the Israeli government — dominated by right-wing zealots — effectively shot itself in the twice Tuesday.

Jonathan Lis of Haaretz reports on the first self-inflicted wound:

Israel should legally annex West Bank settlements in response to the Palestinians’ recent bid for recognition in the United Nations, the leaders of several right-wing Knesset factions said in a letter to Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu on Tuesday.

The letter was signed by Likud chairman Ze’ev Elkin, Shas chairman Avraham Michaeli, Habayit Hayehudi chairman Uri Orbach, and the leader of the National Union faction Yaakov Katz.

In the missive, the right-wing MKs urged the prime minister to sanction the Palestinian Authority for what they called a “unilateral” move in the UN, saying that Israel had to make it clear that it would not agree serve as the Palestinians’ “punching bag.”

Among the steps mentioned in the letter to Netanyahu, the right-wing leaders mentioned the gradual annexation of all West Bank settlements; cutting Palestinian aid money; accelerated settlement building; cancellation of PA officials’ VIP ID cards; and prohibiting any Palestinian construction in areas controlled by Israeli security forces.

Read the rest.

The second shot came soon afterward, reported by Josef Federman of the Associated Press:

Israel granted the go-ahead on Tuesday for construction of 1,100 new Jewish housing units in east Jerusalem, and Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu ruled out any freeze in settlement construction, raising already heightened tensions after last week’s Palestinian move to seek U.N. membership.

Israel’s Interior Ministry said the homes would be built in Gilo, a sprawling Jewish enclave in southeast Jerusalem. It said construction could begin after a mandatory 60-day period for public comment, a process that spokesman Roi Lachmanovich called a formality.

The announcement drew swift condemnation from the Palestinians, who claim east Jerusalem as their future capital. The United States, European Union and United Nations all expressed disappointment with Israel’s decision.

In Washington, U.S. Secretary of State Hillary Rodham Clinton said the Israeli announcement was counterproductive to efforts to relaunch Mideast peace talks. She said both Israel and the Palestinians should avoid provocative actions, and that international mediators will remain focused on guiding the two sides back to direct negotiations.

Richard Miron, a spokesman for U.N. Mideast envoy Robert Serry, said the announcement “sends the wrong signal at this sensitive time.”

Read the rest.

Then, early this morning, they rubbed salt into their own wounds, as Haaretz reports:

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and the eight senior cabinet members were unable to reach an agreement regarding the Quartet’s initiative for renewed talks between Israel and the Palestinians, despite prolonged discussions lasting until 2:00 A.M. on Wednesday.

Netanyahu was expected to support the Quartet’s proposal; however, due to a lack of consensus with the senior cabinet members, no decision was reached.

The plan, presented Friday at UN Headquarters in New York by EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, calls for Israel and the Palestinian Authority to renew direct talks within a month, to present proposals on borders and security within three months, and to reach a final agreement by the end of 2012.

Read the rest.

srael couldn’t have made things any clearer, including their utter contempt for the peace process and their relentless desire to seize all of the West Bank, realizing their dreams of a “Greater Israel.”

Israel has succeeded in becoming its own worst enemy.

WikiCables: Briefing the big guns on Egypt

Today, two SECRET/NOFORN 9 February 2010 cables from Ambassador Margaret Scobey in Cairo, briefing Pentagon Chief of Staff Michael Mullen and FBI Director Robert Mueller in preparation for their visits with top Egyptian officials.

The documents offer a view of the Hosni Mubarak regime written a year and two days before the Egyptian president was forced to resign after a popular uprising.

WikiCable I: Briefing the Chief of Staff

Our first cable, written for the country’s top military officer, contains this very interesting paragraph, which leaves more unsaid than said about Washington’s role in encouraging opposition forces:

We continue to promote democratic reform in Egypt, including the expansion of political freedom and pluralism, and respect for human rights. We have urged the GOE to replace the State of Emergency, in place almost continuously since 1967, with counterterrorism legislation that protects civil liberties. While often used to target violent Islamic extremist groups, the GOE has also used the Emergency Law to target political activity by the Muslim Brotherhood, writers, activists and others. The Interior Ministry uses SSIS to monitor and sometimes infiltrate the political opposition and civil society, and to suppress political opposition through arrests, harassment and intimidation.

The document is posted online here.

VZCZCXRO9786
RR RUEHROV
DE RUEHEG #0179/01 0401442
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
R 091442Z FEB 10
FM AMEMBASSY CAIRO
TO RHMFISS/FBI WASHINGTON DC
RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC 0201
INFO ARAB ISRAELI COLLECTIVE
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 CAIRO 000179
SIPDIS
NOFORN
DEPARTMENT FOR NEA/ELA
E.O. 12958: DECL: 2020/02/09
TAGS: PTER PREL PHUM PGOV KJUS EG

SUBJECT: SCENESETTER FOR FBI DIRECTOR MUELLER

REF: CAIRO 64; CAIRO 47; 09 CAIRO 2164

CLASSIFIED BY: Margaret Scobey, Ambassador; REASON: 1.4(B), (D)

1. (SBU) Director Mueller, I warmly welcome you to Cairo. Your visit provides the opportunity to review and reinforce our strong law enforcement cooperation with the State Security Investigative Service (SSIS), which is under the auspices of Minister of Interior Habib Al Adly (we have requested separate meetings with Adly and SSIS Director Hasan Abdul-Rahman) and other Egyptian agencies involved in law enforcement and counter-terrorism issues. We have also requested meetings with President Hosni Mubarak, Director of Egyptian General Intelligence Omar Soliman and Prosecutor General Abdel Magid Mahmoud.

2. (C) Building upon the optimism generated by a new U.S. administration and President Obama’s well-received June 4 speech in Cairo, we resumed in June our Strategic Dialogue and set in place a new framework for regular bilateral meetings with the Egyptians to explore areas for cooperation and coordination, including examining our respective assessments of strategic threats such as Iran. The most recent meeting was hosted by Under Secretary of State Burns in December in Washington. We are exploring other ways to translate this sense of goodwill into concrete action, including a renewed focus in our bilateral assistance programs on human capacity development and strengthening Egypt’s ability to compete in education, science, and technology. We also recommend you seek an opportunity to express concern about the continuation of the Emergency Law.

——————————————————-
Regional Security: Iran, the Peace Process
——————————————————-

3. (S/NF) President Mubarak sees Iran as Egypt’s — and the region’s — primary strategic threat. Egypt’s already dangerous neighborhood, he believes, has only become more so since the fall of Saddam, who, as nasty as he was, nevertheless stood as a wall against Iran. He now sees Tehran’s hand moving with ease throughout the region, “from the Gulf to Morocco.” The immediate threat to Egypt comes from Iranian conspiracies with Hamas (which he sees as the “brother” of his own most dangerous internal political threat, the Muslim Brotherhood) to stir up unrest in Gaza, but he is also concerned about Iranian machinations in Sudan and their efforts to create havoc elsewhere in the region, including in Yemen, Lebanon, and even the Sinai, via Hezbollah. While Tehran’s nuclear threat is also a cause for concern, Mubarak is more urgently seized with what he sees as the rise of Iranian surrogates (Hamas and Hezbollah) and Iranian attempts to dominate the Middle East.

4. (S/NF) Egypt continues to support our efforts to resume negotiations between the Israelis and Palestinians and maintains a regular dialogue with all sides. Egyptian sponsored negotiations on Palestinian reconciliation are ongoing. Egypt’s objectives are to avoid another Gaza crisis while eroding Hamas’ power and ultimately

A call to oppose the IMF-backed global land grab

From La Via Campesina a call we endorse:

CALL FOR ORGANIZATIONS TO SIGN THE DAKAR APPEAL AGAINST LAND GRABBING!!

During the World Social Forum in Dakar, Senegal, in February 2011, social movements, organizations of small food producers and other CSOs released a collective appeal against land grabbing. Over 650 organizations have already endorsed it. If your organization has not signed on yet and would also like to support this appeal, please do so before 7 October 2011.

The Committee on World Food Security (CFS) based in Rome at the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) is currently negotiating Guidelines on the Responsible Governance of Tenure of Land, Fisheries and Forests. These Guidelines are supposed to protect and strengthen the access to land, fisheries and forests of small food producers. Unfortunately some powerful governments, with the support of International Financial Institutions, are reluctant to adopt strong Guidelines. They prefer a system of governance that facilitates the take-over of people’s natural resources by corporate investors and other powerful actors.

Peasants affected by land grabbing will hand over the Dakar Appeal, together with the names of organizations endorsing it, to governments during the negotiations on the Guidelines in Rome from 10-14 October.

This mobilization will also contribute to pressure governments to definitively reject the World Bank-driven Principles for Responsible Agricultural Investment (RAI).

Land grabbing has to be stopped, it cannot be made “responsible”!

Please read and sign the petition here: http://www.dakarappeal.org

WikiCable: Bunga Bunga Berlusconi, Pentagon tool

Today a change fo pace from our Cal cables, which we’ll pick up tomorrow.

Given the current spate of outage in Rome at the new austerity measures and the ongoing revelations of hanky panky on the part of Italian Prime Minister Silvio “Bunga Bunga” Berlusconi, we thought we’d run this 16 October 2003 SECRET/NOFORN cable from Ambassador to Rome Melvin Floyd Sembler.

Subject: The urgency of signing new tehcnical agreements [TAs] for American bases on Italian soil, given that no other prime minister is as likely as Berlusconi to to spread his cheeks for the Pentagon.

An excerpt:

As noted earlier, the Berlusconi government provides an unprecedented opportunity to work with the Italians. We do not foresee any successor government offering more favorable terms for TAs. Given that elections will be held in Spring 2006, or possibly earlier, we need to accelerate progress on all TAs, including the Sigonella TA, if we want to secure the best possible terms for the US military. We recommend that the USG lock in these provisions without further delay. Failure to do so could erode our operational capabilities in Italy.

The document is posted online here.

161312Z Oct 03
S E C R E T ROME 004736
SIPDIS
NOFORN
STATE FOR EUR, EUR/WE, EUR/RPM, PM
E.O. 12958: DECL: 10/14/2023
TAGS: PREL MOPS IT FORCES IN ITALY

SUBJECT: ITALY: FACTORS AFFECTING BASING OF U.S. MILITARY FORCES

Classified By: DCM Emil Skodon, 1.5 B and D.

Summary

1. (S/NF) US military forces in Italy, which are present under NATO auspices and operate on Italian (not US) bases, are generally welcome, and we expect that situation to continue. In return for basing access, Italy expects a spirit of partnership, timely consultation, and full respect for Italian sovereignty. In general, US operations under NATO or UN auspices gain swift political approval; requests for unilateral US operations from Italian bases are more complex, and could be denied depending upon the Italian political context. Changes in US basing posture in Italy are generally acceptable, if founded on sound military and/or economic principles, balanced, and consistent with the NATO umbrella under which our forces operate in Italy. Issues related to specific locations of US forces can be more difficult and subject to extensive discussion, although we generally get to yes. The Berlusconi government offers a unique opportunity to finalize basing agreements (TAs) under the 1995 Shell Agreement; it is in USG interest to nail these down without further delay. End summary.

US Forces are welcome in Italy…

2. (S/NF) The US has a long and positive history of basing military forces in Italy, and this situation is accepted as normal by most Italians. Approximately 15,000 US soldiers, sailors, airmen and Marines are stationed in Italy at eight major installations. There are, however, no US bases per se n Italy; all US forces are present under NATO auspices on Italian repeat Italian bases. US military forces are generally “good guests”, maintaining high professional standards and hewing to environmental, safety, and other standards that often surpass those required locally. While much attention today is focused on our excellent bilateral relations with PM Berlusconi’s center-right government, its center-left predecessors were also generally receptive to the presence of US forces in Italy. This long history has paid dividends: Italian communities often feel a vested interest in &their8 local bases, and the US and Italian militaries generally work together closely at these facilities.

… in return for consultation, partnership, and respect for sovereignty

3. (S/NF) In the period after the Cold War, Italy has sought a more mature relationship with the US, stressing partnership and early consultation on issues of mutual concern. This is especially true on matters related to the presence and activities of US military forces in Italy. The 1998 Cavalese tragedy, in which 20 persons died when a US military aircraft severed a ski gondola cable, brought these concerns to the fore, and they have never been far from the surface in subsequent years. One of the reasons for this vigilance is the fact that Italian military and civilian officials can be (and have been) held both civilly and criminally liable for lapses or misjudgments that involve

Quote of the day: The price of the Bush legacy

Economist Joseph Stiglitz, writing for Al Jazeera:

Even if Bush could be forgiven for taking the United States, and much of the rest of the world, to war on false pretenses, and for misrepresenting the cost of the venture, there is no excuse for how he chose to finance it. His was the first war in history paid for entirely on credit. As the US went into battle, with deficits already soaring from his 2001 tax cut, Bush decided to plunge ahead with yet another round of tax “relief” for the wealthy.

Today, the US is focused on unemployment and the deficit. Both threats to America’s future can, in no small measure, be traced to the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. Increased defense spending, together with the Bush tax cuts, is a key reason why the US went from a fiscal surplus of 2 per cent of GDP when Bush was elected to its parlous deficit and debt position today. Direct government spending on those wars so far amounts to roughly $2tn – $17,000 for every US household – with bills yet to be received increasing this amount by more than 50 per cent.

WikiCable: The semantics of a war of words

Today, a SECRET/NOFORN 6 January 2010 dispatch from Jonathan D. Farrar, Chief of Mission of the U.S. Interests Section in Havana, which Washington maintains in lieu of an embassy.

The subject: An assessment of the recent ratcheting up of the war of words between Havana and Washington.

An excerpt:

Despite the challenges to the GOC’s authority, its economic mismanagement and its unwillingness to adapt with the times, the GOC remains confident and in control. A less hostile United States has helped allay real or imaginary fears that the regime will come under fire if it retreats from the dogmatic stance of years past. President Castro acknowledged in December that domestic change was needed, but asked for more time for consultations. And, despite his criticism of U.S. democracy programs, he again called for improved relations.

We note the use of two words in the cable — “blogger movement” — to describe one source of antiregime activism and remind readers of the State Department’s ongoing recruitment of bloggers in the propaganda war against regimes deemed unfriendly, as in, say, Egypt and Syria.

In one instance, the name of a Cuban blogger briefly detained by Cuban police is omitted. We can’t fathom why WikiLeaks removed the it in paragraph 7, given that the 6 November 2008 confinement of Cuban blogger Yoani Sanchez was widely reported at the time.

And we also note the palpable loathing of Hugo Chavez on the part of Obama’s man in Cuba.

The document is posted online here. We’ve added missing names and the meanings of acronyms [in brackets].

VZCZCXRO1987
PP RUEHAG RUEHROV RUEHSL
DE RUEHUB #0009/01 0062020
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 062020Z JAN 10
FM USINT HAVANA
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 5071
INFO RUCNMEM/EU MEMBER STATES COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHWH/WESTERN HEMISPHERIC AFFAIRS DIPL POSTS PRIORITY
RUEHBS/USEU BRUSSELS PRIORITY
RHEHAAA/NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUCOGCA/COMNAVBASE GUANTANAMO BAY CU PRIORITY
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUCOWCV/CCGDSEVEN MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RHMFISS/JOINT STAFF WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RHEFDIA/DIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SECTION 01 OF 03 HAVANA 000009
NOFORN
SENSITIVE
SIPDIS
STATE FOR WHA/CCA AND WHA/PD
STATE FOR DRL CNEWLING
E.O. 12958: DECL: 12/20/2019
TAGS: PREL PHUM PGOV SMIG CU

SUBJECT: U.S.- CUBA CHILL EXAGGERATED, BUT OLD WAYS THREATEN PROGRESS

REF: A. REF A HAVANA 639 (“A SPLENDID LITTLE VISIT”)
B. B HAVANA 772 (CONSULAR VISIT TO JAILED AMCIT)
C. C HAVANA 763 (CUBA PASSES UP ON REFORMS)
D. D HAVANA 739 (STRIDENT PROTEST)
E. E HAVANA 736 (HUMAN RIGHTS MARCHES TURN VIOLENT)
F. F HAVANA 755 (CUBAN FEATHERS RUFFLED BY USCG
RESCUE)
HAVANA 00000009 001.2 OF 003

Classified By: Pol/Econ Chief Joaquin F. Monserrate for reasons 1.4 (b) and (d).

1. (S/NF) SUMMARY. Over the course of the last month the tone coming out of Havana seems a regression to the hostile language that kept U.S. – Cuba relations on ice for much of the last 50 years. The U.S. press is playing it that way, and both U.S. and Cuban observers are publicly throwing their hands up in the air in frustration. The reality is far more complex, and possibly less pessimistic. The most vitriolic language was the result of Cuba’s, and more specifically Fidel Castro’s, sense of humiliation at being excluded from the negotiating table at Copenhagen. The GOC [Government of Cuba] would like nothing more than to firewall its civil society from foreigners, but its grumblings over U.S. observance of Human Rights Day were par for the course. Much more threatening to the regime are our overtures to and complaints of mistreatment of bloggers, a group that frustrates and scares the GOC like no other. The arrest of an Amcit, publicly denounced by President Raul Castro, remains a wild card that could further complicate progress. The GOC remains interested in improving relations and extracting what benefits it can but harbors no unrealistic expectations about a radical shift in U.S. policy. That interest wanes and is subject to the whims of Cuba’s rulers. This gerontocracy would rather abandon improved relations if it feels its political authority undermined. END SUMMARY.

HEATED WORDS OVER CLIMATE CHANGE
——————————–

2. (S/NF) The language coming out of Havana after the Climate Summit was as incendiary as it has been over the last year and a half. Communist Party boss and former President Fidel Castro railed about the U.S. “deceit” and “arrogance” and his Foreign Minister, upon his return from Copenhagen, duly repeated the charges at a press conference (Septel) [separate cable]. The atmosphere became so charged, that retired General Barry McCaffrey called off a 2010 visit to Cuba in disgust over the “shallow and vitriolic” language that “made the Cuban leadership appear non-serious, polemical amateurs.” The head of the National Assembly, Ricardo Alarcon, said that he had given up too, and did not expect “big changes in the near future.” The international press was quick to declare that the U.S.-Cuba “honeymoon” was over.

VERBAL WARMING A STAND-ALONE ISSUE
———————————-

3. (S/NF) Other Cuban leaders and the official media, however, have refrained from regurgitating, as they often do, the vitriolic language of the elder Castro. Many interlocutors, both foreign and Cuban, believe that Castro’s (and by extension his Foreign Minister’s) words constitute a stand-alone tantrum, and are not necessarily reflective of the state of relations between Cuba and the U.S. The British and Danes, for instance, were targeted just as fiercely. Castro’s topical obsessions are notorious, and climate change is certainly one of them (Septel). Adding insult to injury is the palpable sense of humiliation at seeing the Cuban Foreign Minister, and wannabe world leader and

Merkel, Sarko call for Euro super-government

UPDATE: The markets didn’t like it

The Merkel/Sarko plans for a more powerful Euro governance didn’t play well on the markets. From the BBC:

European bank shares have fallen after Franco-German plans to tackle the euro debt crisis underwhelmed investors.

Barclays fell 4.2%, RBS 3.8%, Deutsche Bank 2.8% and Societe Generale 2.5%.

A tax on financial transactions, promoted by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President Nicolas Sarkozy on Tuesday, also hit the shares of the operators of leading exchanges.

NYSE Euronext, owner of several continental bourses, was 4.7% lower at the close of trading.

Shares in Deutsche Boerse fell 4.4% and the London Stock Exchange was down 2.8%.

Read the rest.

And now for the details

German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French Prsident Nicolas Sarkozy emerged from their economic summit today with a call for a Euro super-government with power over national budgets of European Union member states.

From the Associated Press:

All countries that use the euro should have mandatory balanced budgets and better coordination of economic policy, the leaders of France and Germany said today, pushing for long-term political solutions instead of immediate financial measures like a single European bond.

French President Nicolas Sarkozy and German Chancellor Angela Merkel also pledged to harmonise their countries’ corporate taxes in a move aimed at showing the eurozone’s largest members are “marching in lockstep” to protect the euro.

Both leaders stressed their commitment to defending the common currency, a cornerstone of integration on this long-fractured continent. They presented their proposals after meeting today in Paris amid signs of economic slowdown, and after an exceptionally turbulent week on financial markets prompted by concern about Europe’s financial health.

Sarkozy told reporters that he and Merkel want a “true European economic government” that would consist of the heads of state and government of all eurozone nations.

The new body would meet twice a year — and more in times of crisis — and be led initially by EU President Herman Van Rompuy for a two-year term. After that, Sarkozy suggested, it could be opened up to other heads of states and government.

Read the rest.

Duo rejects continent-wide bond issues

More details from Spiegel, which notes that the two leaders have ruled our any continent-wide bond issues:

Speaking at a press conference following Tuesday’s special Franco-German summit in Paris, the German chancellor insisted euro bonds – which would see the euro zone issue bonds as a whole, rather than each individual country – were not part of the solution. Rather, the aim was to solve the debt crisis in a step-by-step fashion: “I do not believe that euro bonds would help in that regard,” she said.

The French president, meanwhile, said euro bonds could be a possibility in the future: “Perhaps one could imagine such bonds at some point in the future at the end of a process of European integration. But not at the beginning” of it.

Otherwise, he warned, precisely those countries “who have the best ratings today” might be threatened.

In recent days, calls for euro bonds have grown louder in Europe. Critics, however, maintain that euro bonds would punish countries with solid budget policies by increasing interest rates, while reducing the pressure on debtor states, since the securities would offer the lower yields.

The two leaders also pledged to integrate financial and economic policies to a greater extent in the face of Europe’s debt crisis. They proposed a tax on financial transactions in all the euro-zone countries starting in summer 2012, and called for closer joint governance of economic policy. A plan for Germany and France to harmonize their corporation tax will be drawn up by next year, to take effect starting in 2014.

Merkel said the goal is to “strengthen the euro as our common currency. In order for it to succeed, we need a strong integration of finance and economic policies in the euro zone.”

Read the rest.

And more from Polly Curtis of The Guardian:

France and Germany have set out plans to create the first “true European economic government” headed by a single appointed leader, as part of major moves to synchronise tax and spending to save the failing eurozone.

The French president, Nicolas Sarkozy, and German chancellor, Angela Merkel, announced the dramatic proposals after a two-hour mini-summit. They also called for the imposition of tighter restrictions on member country’s deficits and announced a synchronising of the tax policies of their own two countries. Sarkozy has also secured the support of Merkel for a Tobin tax – a financial

WikiCables: A dual offering from Azerbaijan

Computer problems kept us from posting our daily cable yesterday, so today we have a twofer, a pair of SECRET/NOFORN from the embassy in Baku, Azerbaijan.

WikiCable 1: The Azerbaijan/Israel connection

Our first offering is a 12 January 2009 cable from Ambassador Donald Lu, describing the close but discreet ties between two allies united by that old principle, “the enemy of my enemies is my friend”:

The Azerbaijani authorities assiduously protect Israeli interests in Baku. For example, the DCM [Deputy Chief of Mission] of the Baku Embassy told Emboff [Embassy officer] that the GOAJ [Government of Azerbaijan]had noticeably improved local security at the Israeli Embassy when the most recent operations began in Gaza. When authorities got word of a planned demonstration on January 2, they dispatched buses to the place where the protesters were preparing to set off for the Embassy and arrested them on the spot. Police detained 25 of the 150 demonstrators rounded up, and 20 of them were sentenced to 10 or 15 days, detention. In sharp contrast, the GOAJ allows demonstrators to picket the Iranian Embassy, so long as the subject of the protest is the treatment of Azeris in Iran.

The odcument is posted online here.

VZCZCXRO5638
PP RUEHBC RUEHDE RUEHDIR RUEHKUK
DE RUEHKB #0020/01 0131243
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 131243Z JAN 09
FM AMEMBASSY BAKU
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 0592
INFO RUCNCIS/CIS COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUCNIRA/IRAN COLLECTIVE PRIORITY
RUEHTV/AMEMBASSY TEL AVIV PRIORITY 0059
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHINGTON DC PRIORITY
RUEHNO/USMISSION USNATO PRIORITY 0864
RUEKDIA/DIA WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEHVEN/USMISSION USOSCE PRIORITY 1238
RHEHNSC/NSC WASHDC PRIORITY
RUCNDT/USMISSION USUN NEW YORK PRIORITY 0329
RUEKJCS/SECDEF WASHDC PRIORITY

SUBJECT: AZERBAIJAN’S DISCREET SYMBIOSIS WITH ISRAEL

REF: A. IIR 6 941 0165 09//USDAO BAKU//061207ZJAN09
(NOTAL)
B. 08 BAKU 1119
C. BAKU 17
Classified By: POL/ECON COUNSELOR ROB GARVERICK, REASONS 1.4 B AND D
S E C R E T SECTION
01 OF 02 BAKU 000020
NOFORN
SIPDIS
DEPT FOR EUR/CARC
E.O. 12958:
DECL: 01/13/2029
TAGS: PGOV PRL PTER AJ IS IR

1.(C) Summary. Azerbaijan’s relations with Israel are discreet but close. Each country finds it easy to identify with the other’s geopolitical difficulties and both rank Iran as an existential security threat. Israel’s world-class defense industry with its relaxed attitude about its customer base is a perfect match for Azerbaijan’s substantial defense needs that are largely left unmet by the United States, Europe and Russia for various reasons tied to Armenia and Nagorno-Karabakh. Aptly described by Azerbaijani President Aliyev as being “like an iceberg, nine-tenths of it is below the surface,” this relationship is also marked by a pragmatic recognition by Israel of Azerbaijan’s political need to hew publicly and in international forums to the OIC’s general line. End Summary.

2. (U) This cable is based on Embassy interactions with Israeli colleagues in Baku and with Azerbaijani MFA officials whom we have demarched on Israeli issues.

3. (C) Much like Israel, Azerbaijan perceives Iran as a major, even existential security threat, and the two countries, cooperation flows from this shared recognition. The (U.S.-born) Israeli Ambassador in Baku, Arthur Lenk, often conveys his country’s empathy by remarking with dark humor that if he “had the chance to exchange neighborhoods, with Azerbaijan, I wouldn’t do it.” Even open sources have identified an extensive relationship between the countries, intelligence services that even predated the presidency of Heydar Aliyev and it only stands to reason that this remains a major area of cooperation which both sides naturally seek to downplay.

4. (C) The Azerbaijani authorities assiduously protect Israeli interests in Baku. For example, the DCM of the Baku Embassy told Emboff that the GOAJ had noticeably improved local security at the Israeli Embassy when the most recent operations began in Gaza. When authorities got word of a planned demonstration on January 2, they dispatched buses to the place where the protesters were preparing to set off for the Embassy and arrested them on the spot. Police detained 25 of the 150 demonstrators rounded up, and 20 of them were sentenced to 10 or 15 days, detention. In sharp contrast, the GOAJ allows demonstrators to picket the Iranian Embassy, so long as the subject of the protest is the treatment of Azeris in Iran. In connection with the December 2 demonstration, the Israeli Embassy told us that they “never even saw” the demonstrators and made no requests before or after that anyone be held in custody.

5. (C) Through its close relations with Israel, Azerbaijan gets a level of access to the quality weapon systems it needs to develop its army that it can not obtain from the U.S. and Europe due to various legal limitations, nor from its ex-Soviet suppliers, Belarus and Ukraine. Where other Wastern nations are reluctant to sell ground combat systems to the Azerbaijanis for fear of encouraging Azerbaijan to resort to war to regain NK and the occupied territories, Israel is free to make substantial arms sales and benefits greatly from deals with its well-heeled client. In September 2008 ) again in a little-publicized affair ) the GOAJ signed an extensive agreement with the Israeli Defense Ministry providing for three Israeli companies to provide mortars, ammunition, rocket artillery and radio equipment. The company “Soltam” got the contract to provide mortars and ammunition, “Tadiran Communications” will provide radio gear, and Israeli Military Industries will provide the rockets. IMI sells a range of rocket artillery and

BAKU 00000020 002 OF 002

accessories ranging from upgrade kits for Soviet vintage BM-21 “Grad” 122mm systems, guidance packages for 122mm-300mm rockets and launch vehicles for up to 300mm rockets. It was not clear what exactly the Azerbaijanis bought, as the deal was simply described as being worth “hundreds of millions of dollars.” Azerbaijan already operates IMI,s 122mm “Lynx” multiple-launch rocket system,

WikiCable: Ambassador calls Chavez an ‘enemy’

Our cable today, a SECRET/NOFORN 18 June 2007 dispatch from Ambassador Craig Kelly in Santiago, Chile, contains the harshest description we’ve seen from a State Department official of Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez.

The cable lays out State Department strategy for countering Chavez through a combination of propaganda efforts [including preaching a doctrine of “corporate social responsibility” we’d love to see practiced here], “free trade” agreements, espionage, and military programs.

An excerpt:

Southern Cone militaries remain key institutions in their respective countries and important allies for the U.S. These militaries are generally organized and technically competent. Their desire to maintain interoperability, access to U.S. technology and training are something we can turn to our advantage. As they seek to modernize, professionalize, and transform, they seek closer relations with the US to assist in those processes. Over the past several years we have seen a steady decrease in funds for critical programs such as International Military Education and Training (IMET) and traditional Commander Activities (TCA) and the elimination of other important programs such as Foreign Military Financing (FMF) and Excess Defense Articles (EDA) due to sanctions under ASPA [the American Service-Members’ Protection Act]. To effectively maintain our mil-to-mil relations and guide pol-mil events in the region in support of our interests, we must reverse the slide. Now is precisely the time we need to be increasing our pol-mil [political-military] engagement and programs vice decreasing and limiting them. We also need to revisit some long-held and frankly rigid positions on SOFA [Status of Forces Agreements]agreements and insistence on certain privileges and immunities with a view to gaining flexibility to negotiate new defense cooperation agreements with regional militaries.

Here’s the cable, which is posted online here.

VZCZCXYZ0000
PP RUEHWEB
DE RUEHSG #0983/01 1691445
ZNY SSSSS ZZH
P 181445Z JUN 07
FM AMEMBASSY SANTIAGO
TO RUEHC/SECSTATE WASHDC PRIORITY 1664
INFO RUEHAC/AMEMBASSY ASUNCION PRIORITY 2994
RUEHBR/AMEMBASSY BRASILIA PRIORITY 3691
RUEHBU/AMEMBASSY BUENOS AIRES PRIORITY 0361
RUEHCV/AMEMBASSY CARACAS PRIORITY 1429
RUEHLP/AMEMBASSY LA PAZ JUN 5253
RUEHMN/AMEMBASSY MONTEVIDEO PRIORITY 3682
RHMFISS/HQ USSOUTHCOM MIAMI FL PRIORITY
RUEATRS/DEPT OF TREASURY WASHDC PRIORITY
RUEAIIA/CIA WASHDC PRIORITY
S E C R E T SANTIAGO 000983
SIPDIS
SIPDIS
E.O. 12958: DECL: 06/15/2017
TAGS: PGOV PREL KDEM KCRM AR BO BR PARM UY VE CI

SUBJECT: A SOUTHERN CONE PERSPECTIVE ON COUNTERING CHAVEZ
AND REASSERTING U.S. LEADERSHIP

REF: ASUNCION 396

Classified By: AMBASSADOR CRAIG KELLY; Reasons 1.4(b), (d)

——-
Summary
——-

1. (C) Hugo Chavez’s effort to expand his influence into the Southern Cone was the subject of ref A. This, part two in a series of joint cables from Southern Cone embassies, looks at ways the U.S. can counter Chavez and reassert U.S. leadership in the region. From posts’ perspectives, there are six main areas of action for the USG as it seeks to limit Chavez’s influence:

–Know the enemy: We have to better understand how Chavez thinks and what he intends;
–Directly engage: We must reassert our presence in the region, and engage broadly, especially with the “non-elites”;
–Change the political landscape: We should offer a vision of hope and back it up with adequately-funded programs;
–Enhance military relationships: We should continue to strengthen ties to those military leaders in the region who share our concern over Chavez;
–Play to our strength: We must emphasize that democracy, and a free trade approach that includes corporate social responsibility, provides lasting solutions;
–Get the message out: Public diplomacy is key; this is a battle of ideas and visions. Septel provides detailed suggestions.

2. (C) We should neither underestimate Chavez nor lose sight of his vulnerabilities. Many of the region’s leaders and opnion makers appreciate the importance of relations with the U.S. and generally want to see us more deeply engaged. They reject the notion that Chavez best represents the region’s interests. We must convince not only government leaders but civil society – the person on the street – that we are committed to a progressive and democractic [sic] vision for the Americas and to helping our neighbors meet their challenges. If we can, we will make quick inroads into marginalizing Chavez’ influence, bolster democracy and reassert our own leadership in the region. End Summary.

————–
Know Thy Enemy
————–

3. (S/NF) Notwithstanding his tirades and antics, it would be a mistake to dismiss Hugo Chavez as just a clown or old school caudillo. He has a vision, however distorted, and he is taking calculated measures to advance it. To effectively counter the threat he represents, we need to know better his objectives and how he intends